The .Plan: A Quasi-Blog
Friday, January 16, 2009
Not to start a panic or anything, but...
--Intrade prediction market
probability that U.S. GDP will drop more than 10% in 2009
. Note that this number will be higher than the true probability if traders are going long this security as insurance against a depression actually happening.
[UPDATE: It appears that the graph above is being updated at the close of each trading day, which is why the closing price doesn't match the number quoted by me.]
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