Friday, January 16, 2009

Not to start a panic or anything, but...

--Intrade prediction market probability that U.S. GDP will drop more than 10% in 2009. Note that this number will be higher than the true probability if traders are going long this security as insurance against a depression actually happening.

[UPDATE: It appears that the graph above is being updated at the close of each trading day, which is why the closing price doesn't match the number quoted by me.]

No comments: